区域国土开发强度与资源环境承载力时空耦合关系

针对区域国土开发强度和资源环境承载力不协调、不平衡发展问题,利用耦合协调度模型和相对发展度模型,从时空维度定量研究福州市(仓山区、台江区和鼓楼区除外)国土开发强度与资源环境承载力的耦合协调发展关系及交互耦合程度.然后,通过新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测永泰县和闽清县未来5 a的耦合协调发展轨迹,实现从定量研究到动态仿真的转变.研究结果表明:2012-2017年福州市国土开发强度呈"倒U形"发展,高值地区主要分布于福州市的中部、南部和东南部,具有明显的空间差异性;2012-2017年福州市资源环境承载力在波动中稳步上升,上升幅度较大的地区有平潭县、闽清县、永泰县和晋安区,增幅最高达59%.研究期内,福州市总体处于低度协调阶段,其中晋安区耦合协调度提升最快,增幅达22.12%;但资源环境水平总体滞后于国土开发建设水平,且相对发展状态波动最大的为闽清县和永泰县.预测结果显示,未来5 a闽清县和永泰县耦合协调演化进程明显加快,两系统趋于衰退.

Research on Spatiotemporal Coupling Relationship Between Regional Land Development Intensity and Resource Environmental Carrying-Capacity

For regional land development intensity and resource environmental carrying-capacity problem of uncoordinated and uneven development based on the coupling coordination degree model and relative development degree model the coupling coordination development relationship and interaction coupling degree between land development intensity and resource environmental carrying-capacity in Fuzhou City(except Cangshan Dis-trict, Taijiang District and Gulou District)are studied quantitatively from the space-time dimension. Moreover, the metabolic GM(1,1)model is used to predict the development track of coupling and coordination degree of Yongtai County and Minqing County in the next five years,so as to realize the transformation from “quantitative study” to “dynamic simulation”. The results show that: the land development intensity in Fuzhou City developed in an “inverted U-shaped” from 2012 to 2017 the high-value areas were mainly distributed in the central southern and southeastern parts of Fuzhou City,with obvious spatial difference;the resource environmental carrying capacity in Fuzhou City increased steadily in the fluctuation from 2012 to 2017 the areas with a large increase were Pingtan County, Minqing County,Yongtai County and Jin’an District with a maximum increase of 59%.During the study period, Fuzhou City was generally in the stage of low coordination,and the coupling coordination degree of Jin’an District was the fastest, with an increase of 22.12%. However, the overall level of resources environment laged behind the level of land development and construction, and the most fluctuating relative development status were Minqing County and Yongtai County. The prediction results show that in the next five years, the coupling coordination evolution of Minqing County and Yongtai County will accelerate obviously, and the two systems will tend to decline.