瓶装水消费问题研究 ——以广东省为例

为了研究瓶装水消费的驱动因素,以广东省的瓶装水消费为例,利用边限协整检验方法、自回归分布滞后模型以及误差纠正模型分析GDP指数、在校生人数和过夜游客数对瓶装水消费量的影响。结果表明:收入因素在长期和短期都对瓶装水消费量有显著的促进作用;旅游和教育这两个典型行业的发展壮大都对瓶装水消费量的增长有显著的促进作用,其中旅游业的发展对瓶装水消费量的长期促进效果更明显,在校学生对瓶装水的消费则具有一定的替代性。因此,随着国民收入水平的进一步提高以及旅游等行业的进一步发展,瓶装水的消费量将进一步增加,带来的能源消耗和环境问题不容忽视,需要深入研究。

A Study on Bottled Water Consumption: A Bounds Testing Analysis for Guangdong Province

To study the driving factors underlying the bottled water consumption growth, the bounds testing analysis for Guangdong Province between the bottled water consumption and the GDP indexes, the student number and the number of overnight tourist was performed. The results indicated that there existed a long-run relationship between the bottled water consumption and these factors. The subsequent autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) analysis concluded that the income level was positively related with the bottled water consumption in the long run and short run. Moreover, the growth of the selected two particular sectors, the education sector and the tourism sector, was also positively related with the bottled water consumption. Additionally, the tourism had a larger influence on the bottled water consumption than the education sector in the long run, and the education sector exhibited some substitutability of bottled water consumption. Therefore, with the increase of the income level and development of the tourism and education sector, the energy problems and other environmental problems behind the bottled water consumption will not be negligible.