基于任务的k/n(G)系统舰船备件需求预测

针对k/n(G)系统在事后维修与任务后检修相结合条件下的舰船备件需求预测问题，在备件寿命服从指数分布的条件下，首先建立了k/n(G)系统的备件需求预测模型，并给出了备件需求特征。然后，基于方便理解和简便计算的需要，以伽马型单部件需求为基础，给出了备件需求模型的工程解释和近似计算方法，并对近似算法的精度进行了验证。结果表明，备件需求模型可以更好地描述k/n(G)系统在一次海上任务期内的备件需求，近似算法具有较高的精度，可以为舰船装备备件配置问题提供参考。

Task based demand forecasting of warship spares for k/n(G) system

For warship spares demand forecasting of k/n(G) system with the combination of overhaul after the task and maintenance afterwards, firstly, a spares demand forecasting model of k/n(G) system is established for exponential distribution spares, and the demand characteristics of the spares is given. Secondly, for convenient understanding and calculating, an engineering interpretation and approximate calculation method of spares demand model is given based on the Gamma single spare parts. And the approximate algorithm is verified. Results show that the demand model describes the spares demand of k/n(G) system in a task period well, and the approximate calculation method takes a good precision, and could make a reference for spares configuration of warship equipment.