小样本贫信息条件下高炉冶炼烧结终点组合预测法

由于烧结过程具有不确定性、多变量耦合、时变时滞的特点,并且烧结终点受多种因素的影响,采用传统控制方法难以将烧结终点控制在要求的范围内,提出应用支持向量机优良的时序预测性能,以及贝叶斯理论能够利用样本信息和先验知识来简化预测模型和优化参数的特性,建立了贝叶斯支持向量机烧结终点的预报模型。首先对烧结终点的机理分析,后分别叙述贝叶斯框架理论和LS-SVM算法,并将贝叶斯证据框架应用于最小二乘支持向量机模型参数的自动选择,建立起时间序列的烧结终点非线性预测模型。在贝叶斯推断的第一层,进行模型参数的选择;在贝叶斯推断的第二层,进行模型超参数的选择;在贝叶斯推断的第三层,估计模型核参数,然后利用贝叶斯最小二乘支持向量机算法(LS-SVM)对烧结终点进行预测,并在此基础上构造了烧结终点的贝叶斯最小二乘支持向量机模型。仿真结果和多种模型比较表明,本模型能在小样本贫信息条件下对烧结终点做出比较准确的预测,并具有预测精度高、所需样本少、计算简便等优点,取得了令人满意的结果。

Combination forecasting method of BTP in blast furnace under the conditions of small samples and poor information

The iron ore sintering process is a complex object with the characteristics of uncertainty,multivariable coupling,time-varying and time-delay.The burning-through-point(BTP)is affected by many factors and difficult to be controlled to the required precision by conventional control methods.A BTP prediction method is proposed by using the excellent time series prediction performance of support vector machines(SVMs),and the characteristic that Bayesian theory can make use of sample information and prior knowled...