甘肃省农业机械化发展预测研究

根据甘肃省 1 990～ 1 999年主要农业机械拥有量和农业产出及主要生产要素投入量的统计数据 ,采用时序分析法和灰色系统理论 ,结合定性分析 ,建模预测了甘肃省 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 1 0年主要农业机械的发展前景 ,并用柯布—道格拉斯 (Cobb- Dauglas)生产函数法估算了未来 1 0年甘肃省农业机械化对农业产出的贡献率。结果表明 :未来1 0年甘肃省农机总动力、原值和以小型拖拉机及其配套机具为主的农业机械将会有较大发展 ,农业机械化对农业产出的贡献率可望达到 3 5.87%左右

THE PREDICTION OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION DEVELOPMENT IN GANSU PROVINCE

By applying the prediction methods of time-order analysis and the gray system theory, the prediction models of main agricultural machinery development, of gross output value of plant products industry and of major agricultural production factors in Gansu Province were built and their prediction from 2000 to 2010 was made based on the data of statistics from 1990 to 1999 and combined with qualitative analysis. Then the mechanization profit portion in plant products industry in the province was estimated and analyzed quantitatively by the method of Cobb-Dauglas production function. The result shows that the total motive force, original cost and overwhelming small type tractors and their matching farm implements of agriculatural machinery will be developed greatly and the mechanization profit portion in plant products industry will reach 35.87% approximately.