T639预报风场在台湾周边海域的解释应用

基于台湾的气象观测资料与日本的漂流浮标资料,通过定性判断预报值与观测值的曲线走势、定量计算相关系数、偏差、均方根误差及平均绝对误差的比较方法,检验了T639预报风场在台湾周边的有效性,能为航海、海洋工程、防灾减灾等提供参考。结果表明,T639预报风场对影响台湾与周边的台风、冷空气过程都具有较强的预报能力,其中对冷空气的模拟效果整体好于台风过程,中低风速下的模拟效果好于高风速;在台风(或冷空气)和狭管效应的双重作用下,台湾海峡存在明显的大风中心,但在台湾岛的阻挡下,台湾西南部的高雄附近海域在冷空气期间持续存在一个低值中心,冷空气期间风向的向岸效应(风向呈圆弧形包绕着大陆海岸线)明显。

Application of T639 forecasting wind field around Taiwan island

For the disaster prevention and mitigation,the precision of T639 forecasting wind data surrounding the Taiwan Island was verified by quantitatively judging from the curve trend of the observed value and the forecasting value and qualitatively judging from correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error,and based on the observation meteorological data from Taiwan Island and Japan.Results run as follows:Firstly,the T639 forecasting wind production can describe the cold air and typhoon process surrounding the Taiwan Island very well,with the precision during the cold air process higher than that in the typhoon process,and the precision of mid low wind speed higher than that of high wind speed. Secordly,under the effect of cold air (or typhoon) and canalization funneling (narrow pipe effect), there is an obvious gale center in the Taiwan Strait,with a persistent low value center of wind speed during the cold air process for the block of Taiwan Island. Thirdly,during the cold air process, the wind direction exhibits an arc shape along the coastal line.