中国对外直接投资宏观绩效的实证

对外直接投资绩效问题是进一步发展中国对外直接投资、增强中国企业国际竞争力的核心问题.宏观绩效的实证分析表明,无论在长期还是短期内,中国对外直接投资对经济增长、对增进出口的作用都没有显著影响.从长期来看,对外直接投资对外汇储备没有显著影响,而对外汇储备的短期影响显著且是负面的.对外直接投资对国内投资没有显著的长期或短期影响.对外直接投资对FDI流入以及对外直接投资对全要素生产率的影响关系上,两者的长期均衡关系不成立,两者短期因果关系也不明显.中国对外直接投资的宏观绩效是不显著的.

Empirical Study on the Macroeconomic Performance of China's FDI

The problem on performance of foreign direct investment is the heart of matters, which are further expanding foreign direct investment in China and strengthen international competitive ability of Chinese enterprises. The empirical study on macro performance shows that foreign direct investment in China has made no difference to economic growth and export promotion, both long term and shot term; for a long term, it has no remarkable effect on foreign exchange reserve, but remarkable and negative effect in a short term. It has no any effect on domestic investment in long or short term. There is no balance relation in long term and no cause and effect relation either between foreign direct investment and FDI inflow, or between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity. Foreign direct investment in China has no remarkable effect on macro performance.