洪水形成过程的协同性探究

以武江流域犁市站历史上的53场洪水为例，选取17个时段洪量作为序参量，建立洪水过程协同性评价模型，分析洪水过程的协同性是否发生改变. 研究结果表明:尽管武江流域过去发生过较大的洪水，但是从洪水的协同性角度来看，4场大洪水(1968、1994、2002、2006年)形成过程未发生变异，总体上武江流域各场洪水的消退与涨水子系统的相干性不强，表现为洪水形成过程的协同性较差，与此同时在1963年和1991年洪水形成过程的协同性发生了较为明显的变异.

Synergy degree of flood process on flood changes

In order to analyze the variability of coordination of flood process, the Flood Process Synergy Degree Evaluation model has been established in the paper. The example is shown by the 53 floods in the Lishi station of Wujiang River . The order parameters of the flood process, including 17 flood volumes, are formed by the flood freshet and stage of flood process, respectively. The results show that the synergy of four floods (in the years of 1968, 1994, 2002, 2006) from a point of synergy degree, which brought greater economic losses. did not display variation in Wujiang River basin. The performance of buffer and coordination, which appears in freshet stage and recession stage, is not strong in each flood process in Wujiang River Basin. At the same time, there were the great variations of synergy, which occurred in 1963 and 1991.