期货市场投机者粘性预期的尖点突变模型

传统投机决策模式研究往往偏重于两个极端：完全理性（基于完全概率信息）和完全非理性（忽略基本面信息），这显然与真实投机者有限理性的事实不符。本文通过对期货市场多逻辑不确定性的分析，对期货投机者典型的预期模式进行了研究，并将其纳入到突变理论的模型框架中，从而为基于有限理性的期货投机决策模式的研究探索出一条可行的路径。

A Cusp Catastrophe Model of the Sticky Expectation of the Speculator in the Futures Markets

The traditional study of speculative decision making usually lay particular stress on the two extremeness: the complete rationality (based on the suffcient probability information) and the complete irrationality (the external information is ignored). This is obviously not agreed with the fact that the real speculator holds limited rationality. In this paper, the typical expectation mode of the futures speculator is studied with the analysis on the multi-logical uncertainty of the futures lnarkets, it is found that the speculative expectation mode can be well simulated by the famous cusp catastrophe model, so that it is feasible to study the expectation mode of futures speculator on the basis of limited rationality.