基于风险矩阵和层次分析法的深水气井测试作业风险评估

为有效梳理深水气井测试作业风险,分析了深水测试作业中潜在的主要风险,将深水测试风险划分为井况与环境风险、井筒与设备失效风险和操作与管理风险3个风险评价单元,确定了深水测试作业风险评估的33个评价指标,建立测试作业的完整性评价模式。结合风险矩阵法和层次分析法(analysis hierarchy process, AHP),确定了各评价指标发生风险的严重程度与可能性以及相对权重值,通过计算深水气井测试作业的风险度得到对测试作业风险等级的划分,并将其应用于某深水气井测试作业的风险评估。

Risk assessment of Deep-Water Gas Well Testing Operations based on Risk Matrix and AHP

In order to effectively sort out the risks of deep-water gas well testing operations, the potential main risks in deep-water testing operations are analyzed in this paper. Further, the deep-water testing risks was divided into three risk assessment units: well condition and environmental risks, wellbore and equipment failure risks, and operation and management risks. Moreover, 33 evaluation indicators for risk assessment of deep-water testing operations are determined, and the integrity evaluation model of test operations is established. Combining the Risk Matrix and the Analysis Hierarchy Process, the severity and probability of the occurrence of each evaluation index and the relative weight value are determined. By calculating the risk degree of the deep-water gas well testing operation, the risk level of the test operation is obtained, which is applied to the risk assessment of deep-water gas well testing operations.