| 2010年中国木材供给和需求的灰色模型动态预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张智光,唐文彬.2010年中国木材供给和需求的灰色模型动态预测与分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),1995,19(3):53-59. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张智光 唐文彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京林业大学经济管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 林业部＂八五＂攻关项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中国木材供需问题的具体特点，选用灰色预测模型，建立了中国木材产量、进口量、出口量、节约代用量、供给和需求量的ＧＭ（１，１）系列模型，并作出了直到２０１０年的动态预测。据此，对中国木材供需问题及共对策进行了分析。从预测和分析结果来看，灰色预测模型不仅满足了预测精度，而且能较好地与实际情况相吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 木材市场 供给 需求 预测 灰色系统模型 |
DYNAMIC FORECASTING FOR CHINA'S TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND TILL 2010 BY GREY MODEL AND ITS ANALYSIS |
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| Zhang Zhiguang, Tang Wenbin.DYNAMIC FORECASTING FOR CHINA''''S TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND TILL 2010 BY GREY MODEL AND ITS ANALYSIS[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences ),1995,19(3):53-59. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Zhiguang Tang Wenbin |
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| Institution: | College of Economics and Manasement Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing 210037 |
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| Abstract: | According to the concrete characteristics of timber supply and demand in China, a grey forecasting model is selected, and a set of GM(1, 1 ) models are built for China's timber production, import, export, saving and substitution, supply and demand. Then dynamic forecasts are made till2010. On these grounds, the problems of China's timber supply and demand are analysed and theircountermeasures are suggested. Results show that the grey forecasting model not only ensures the forecasting precision demand but also complies better with practical situation. |
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| Keywords: | Timber market Supply and demand Forecast Grey system model |
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