马氏链在国际工程投标风险预测中的应用

根据国际工程承包的特点，概述国际承包市场现有的主要问题及投标风险研究的必要性，在论证马氏链解决国际工程投标风险预测的适用性后，建立国际工程投标风险预测的马氏链模型。同时，给出利用专家评价法和概率统计确定法来确定转移概率的方法，结合实运用所建立的马氏链预测模型，对国际工程投标的风险预测过程进行了模拟运算，最后求出投标在不同阶段的中标率的风险系数，以提高风险预测的定量化水平和准确程度。

Application of Markov Chain to the Risk Forecasting in Entering a Transnational Project Bid

In line with the characteristic of transnational project contractor, the main problems in this field and the necessity of studying the risk in entering the bid are briefly related. After demonstrating the applicability of Markov chain to risk forecasting in entering a transnational project bid, the authors give a model of Markov chain and two methods of defining transition probability including expert's evaluation and determination by probability and statistics; and give analog operation on risk forecasting in entering a project bid by using Markov chain as forecasting model in the light of practical examples; and work out the rates of winning the bid and coefiicients of risk during different phases in entering the bid so as to improve the quantification and accuracy of risk forecasting.