基于最优组合预测法的电网用电量预测

西藏林芝电网电源单一,冬、春季拉闸限电局面日趋严重,为科学预测电网用电量,提出基于一元线性回归模型与灰色模型建立最优加权组合预测模型,应用最优模型对林芝电网2000～2007年电网用电量的历史数据进行拟合,对2008～2015年的用电量进行预测,通过实例分析表明最优组合预测结果更为精确,并预测出2015年电网用电量将达到1.68亿kW.h。

Forecasting on Electricity Consumption Based on Optimal Combined Forecasting Method in the Power Grid

The power grid of Nyingchi is single.In winter and spring,the situation of electricity limiting is getting more and more serious.To predict Scientifically the electricity consumption,the optimal weighted combination forecast model which is base on both the linear regression model and the gray model has been put forward,The optimal regression model was used to fit the historical data of the power grid from 2000 to 2007,and was applied to forecast the electricity consumption from 2010 to 2015,it has been proved by case analysis that the results of the optimal weighted combination forecast model are more precise,at the same time, and it is predicted that the grid electricity consumption in 2015 wilt reach 168 million kW？h.