基于适应度景观理论的NPD项目运行机制研究

针对NPD项目为了适应市场环境而不断改变自身要素状态的适应行为，借鉴适应度景观理论来揭示NPD项目的运行机制。在介绍适应度景观理论的基础上，阐述了NPD项目运行的适应度景观内涵。运用NK模型，对适应度景观建模并进行了数值仿真。研究发现，成功NPD项目的运行过程分为随机性游走、适应性游走和适应性跳跃三个阶段。在随机性游走阶段，适应度之间具有明显的波动性，且随要素间关系数量的增加而愈加显著。在适应性游走阶段，NPD项目的适应能力得到了渐进式提升，却容易陷入局部最优陷阱。在适应性跳跃阶段，成功的NPD项目通过将短跳和长跳相结合，即保证不断向更高的适应水平发展，又可以避免局限在局部高峰上，从而不断获得成功与发展。

Researches on Proceeding Mechanism of NPD Project Based on Fitness Landscape Theory ＊

Considering the fact that NPD project has to adaptively change the state of its elements in accordance with market, fitness landscape theory is introduced to explore its proceeding mechanism. Based on presenting fitness landscape theory, the fitness landscape connotation of proceeding for NPD project is elaborated. Then the fitness landscape of proceeding for NPD project is modeled and simulated numerically based on NK model. The simulation results show that the whole proceeding of successful NPD project can be divided into random walk, adap- tive walk and adaptive jump. At the random walk stage, fitness values of NPD project are fluctuant, which becomes more significant along with the increasing amount of relationships among elements. At the adaptive walk stage, adaptability of NPD project is improved gradually, but will be easily trapped into the partial optimization. At the adaptive jump stage, through combining the short jump with long jump, successful NPD project can not only climb higher peak smoothly, but also avoid being trapped into partial peak for remaining developed and successful.