产业结构变动对我国直辖市宏观经济的影响研究

在测度四个直辖市产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上，研究了产业结构对经济增长、物价稳定、就业充分、对外贸易均衡的影响。研究结果表明：产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对宏观经济指标均具正向作用。其中，对前三个指标，产业结构合理化比高级化时宏观经济的影响更加显著，并表现出较好的稳定性，高级化则表现出较大的不确定性。而在对外贸易均衡指标的影响上，产业结构高级化比合理化更加显著。

Empirical Study on Impacts of Industrial Structure upon Macro-Economy of Municipalities in China

Based on the rationalization and the optimization of industrial structure of the four municipalities in China, the mechanism of the ra- tionalization is considered, as well as the optimization of industrial structure on economic growth , price stability, full employment and the for- eign trade equilibrium. The results showed that the industrial structure play a positive role to the macro-economic indicators. The rationaliza- tion of industrial structure and the first three indicators has a steady relationship. And their optimization has an uncertain relationship. Howev- er, the optimization of industrial structure has more notable influence than the rationalization of industrial structure on the foreign trade equi- librium. Overall, the contribution of the rationalization of industrial structure to the macro-economic indicators is much greater than the optimi- zation of industrial structure.