河北省产业结构升级影响因素定量分析研究

为解决产业结构升级影响因素的定量测算问题,以各产业部门产出成比例增长模式为前提,以省内最终需求增长比率作为产出增长比率,基于投入产出模型建立了投入产出偏差分析模型。进而利用模型对河北省1992—2000年的经济发展变化进行了分析,作出了“河北省经济增长主要是由生产技术进步(贡献度为41.27%)和资本形成总额(贡献度为49.81%)拉动”的重要判断,并提出了“十五”期间产业结构的升级与部门发展途径。提出的投入产出偏差分析模型对分析一个国家的经济发展影响因素同样适用。

Quantitative analysis research on affecting elements of industrial structure upgrading of Hebei province

To solve the problem of quantitative calculation of affecting elements of industrial structure upgrading, on the precondition that the outputs of various industries increase in proportion, with final home demand growth rate being output growth rate, this paper establishes Input-output Variance Analysis Model based on input-output mode. Then by using this model this paper analyzes the changes in economic development of Hebei province from 1992 to 2000, and then draws the conclusion that technological advance and investment-demand promotion contribute 41.27% and 49.81% respectively to economic growth of the said province. In addition, this paper comes up with approaches to upgrading industrial structure during the Tenth Five-year Plan period. The Input-output Variance Analysis Model in question also applies to analyzing affecting elements of economic development of a country.