| 成都市城区空气污染指数的时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 柴微涛,宋述军,宋学鸿. 成都市城区空气污染指数的时间序列分析[J]. 成都理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 34(4): 485-488 |
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| 作者姓名： | 柴微涛 宋述军 宋学鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都市经济信息中心,成都,610071;中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都,610041;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据成都市城区2001～2005年的大气污染监测资料,获取和分析成都市空气污染指数.采用时间序列分析方法,对空气污染指数建立自回归滑动平均模型模拟实测的空气污染指数,并对模拟结果进行了检验.结果表明:成都市空气污染状况具有夏季较好、其他季节较差的季节性变化规律.采用时间序列分析大气污染状况是可行性的.
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| 关 键 词： | 空气污染指数 大气污染 时间序列分析 自回归滑动平均模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-9727（2007）04-0485-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-02-25 |
Time series analysis of the air pollution index in Chengdu City |
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| CHAI Wei-tao,SONG Shu-jun,SONG Xue-hong. Time series analysis of the air pollution index in Chengdu City[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology: Sci & Technol Ed, 2007, 34(4): 485-488 |
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| Authors: | CHAI Wei-tao SONG Shu-jun SONG Xue-hong |
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| Affiliation: | Chengdu Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610071 , Chian; Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment of CAS, Chengdu 610041 , China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observations of the air pollutants from 2001 to 2005 in the urban area of Chengdu City,the air pollution index is obtained and analyzed.The authors use the auto-regressive moving average(ARMA) method to simulate the actual API by time series analysis.They also carry out and discuss the performance evaluation of the adopted model according to root mean square error(RMSE).According to the analysis of the air pollution data and API,the result shows that the air pollution quality in the urban area of Chengdu is of a seasonal variation law with lower levels in summer and higher levels in other seasons.The results indicate that time series analysis method can provide reliable,satisfactory predictions for the interested problem and is expect to be an alternative tool for practical assessment and justification. |
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| Keywords: | air pollution index(API) air pollution time series analysis auto-regressive moving average(ARMA) |
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