意识扩散和SEIR病毒的双层网络传播模型

针对类似于新型冠状病毒(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)具有明显潜伏期特性的病毒，为了解其传播特性，做出相应预测和措施，提出了一种考虑时变因素的双层网络传播模型。上层网络采用考虑时变遗忘概率的UAU(unaware-aware-unaware)信息传播模型表示关于病毒的意识信息扩散过程；下层网络采用具有潜伏态的SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered)类病毒传播模型描述受意识信息影响的病毒传播过程。利用MMCA(microscopic Markov chain approach)推导出传染病传播阈值，通过分析遗忘因素、感染衰减因子等关键因素，仿真结果表明了所提考虑时变因素的双层网络传播模型的有效性。

A Two-Layer Network Propagation Model of Awareness Diffusion and SEIR Epidemic

In order to understand the transmission characteristics of epidemics similar to COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) with obvious expose period, a two-layer network transmission model considering time-varying factors is proposed to make corresponding predictions and measures. The UAU (unaware-aware-unaware) information transmission model is used to represent the diffusion process of conscious information about epidemic. In the underlying network, the susceptible-exposed-infected- recovered (SEIR) epidemic-like transmission model with latent state is used to describe the epidemic transmission process affected by conscious information. The MMCA (microscopic Markov chain approach) is used to deduce the transmission threshold of epidemics diseases. By analyzing the key factors such as forgetting factors and infection attenuation factors, the simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed the two-layer network transmission model considering time-varying factors proposed.