新配额制下电力-绿证-超额消纳量多尺度市场交易仿真

为了明确新配额制(renewable portfolio standards，RPS)下电力-绿证-超额消纳量多尺度市场耦合互动关系，引入系统动力学，构建互动交易模型并进行仿真。以市场交易标的物流转为线索，设计多市场耦合交易体系，基于系统动力学方法构建耦合交易复杂因果关系，并分析新RPS对市场主体收益或成本影响。仿真结果表明：新RPS下，电力价格逐渐下降趋势，消纳量证书交易压低绿证交易价格，二者交易价格最终会趋于相等。RPS会使可再生能源发电商电力市场收益、用户用电成本波动下降，RPS比例提高，二者下降速度减缓。

Multi-market Coupling Trading Simulation of Electricity Green Certificate and Excess Consumption Under New Renewable Portfolio Standard

In order to clarify the multi-scale market coupling interaction relationship of electricity, green certificate, excess consumption under the renewable portfolio standards (RPS), the system dynamics is introduced, and the interactive trading model is constructed and simulated. Taking the logistics transformation of three market transaction targets as the clue, this paper designs a multi-scale market coupling transaction framework, constructs the complex causality of coupling transaction based on system dynamics method, and analyzes the impact of RPS on the revenue or cost of market participants. Simulation results show that under the new RPS, the electricity price will gradually decline, the transaction price of green certificate will be depressed by the consumption certificate, and the transaction price of green certificate will eventually become equal. The new RPS will reduce the market income of renewable energy generators and the fluctuation of electricity cost of users, and increasing the proportion of RPS will slow down the decline rate of both.