面向地震灾害的应急物资需求预测

科学、合理、准确地预测地震应急物资需求,能够为物资的筹集和调度提供快速决策的依据,从而提高地震灾害的应急救援效率.基于中国2008—2020年具有破坏性的地震灾害数据,运用回归分析研究与地震受灾人数相关的典型应急物资的需求量预测问题.通过假设检验和模型修正后,采用差值度量结果的四分位法对受灾人数预测结果进行调整,最后计算应急物资饮用水和衣服的需求量.实证结果表明,预测模型及结果具有一定的合理性和实用性.

Demand prediction of emergency supplies for earthquake disaster

Scientific, reasonable and accurate prediction of earthquake emergency supplies demand can provide a basis for rapid decision-making for the collection and scheduling of emergency supplies, so as to improve the efficiency of earthquake relief work. Based on the destructive earthquake disaster data in China from 2008 to 2020, we utilize the regression analysis to study the demand prediction of typical emergency supplies related to the affected population by the earthquake.The quartile method of the difference measure results is adopt to adjust the prediction results of the number of disaster victims through hypothesis inspection and model modification.The last, the quantity demanded of drinking water and clothes for emergency supplies are calculated. The experimental results show that the prediction model is instructive to reaching a rational and practicable level.