多式联运模式下跨国供应链运输中断风险系统动力学仿真与分析——以快消食品供应链为例

以跨国快消食品制造企业为背景，建立跨国快消食品两级供应链系统动力学仿真模型，通过仿真分析了其运输中断风险问题。通过仿真研究，提出了基于不同管理目标导向的差异化多式联运风险控制策略的新观点。研究发现：“航空运输→海上运输→公路运输”多式联运模式下，减少过期量目标导向企业的管理重点顺序为公路运输阶段>海上运输阶段>航空运输阶段，减少市场流失目标导向企业的管理重点顺序应为公路运输阶段>航空运输阶段>海上运输阶段，优先重点管理公路运输阶段是两个目标导向企业的占优战略；“公路运输→海上运输→航空运输”多式联运模式下，3个运输阶段的管理重点顺序发生了变化，企业不再存在占优战略，但存在劣战略；靠后的运输阶段发生运输中断时所带来的原材料过期风险总是要高于靠前的运输阶段；不同目标导向的企业需要警惕不同的混合中断，降低出现混合中断的概率；不同多式联运模式的相同运输中断将产生不同的风险水平。

System Dynamic-Based Risk Analysis of Transportation Disruption in Transnational Supply Chain in Different Multimodal Transportation Modes: A Case Study of FMCG Food Supply Chain

Based on the background of a multinational fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) food company, this paper establishes a two-level system dynamics model of multinational FMCG food supply chain, and analyzes the risk of transportation disruption by simulation. A new perspective of risk management strategy based on different management objectives is proposed. It is found that under the multimodal transportation mode of “air transportation→sea transportation→road transportation”, the priority order is the road transportation stage>sea transportation stage>air transportation stage when the company’s target is to reduce the overdue quantity, while the priority order is the road transportation stage>air transportation stage>sea transportation stage when the company’s target is to reduce the market loss. The dominant strategy is to give priority to the road transportation stage when the company has two targets at the same time. In the multimodal transportation mode of “road transportation→sea transportation→air transportation”, the priority order in the three transportation stages has changed. The company no longer has a dominant strategy, but there is an inferior strategy. The risk of raw material expiration caused by the transportation disruption in the later transportation stage is always higher than that in the earlier transportation stage. Different target-oriented companies need to be alert to different mixed disruptions and reduce the probability of mixed disruptions. The same transportation disruption in different multimodal transportation modes will lead to different risk levels.