面向亚轨道解体事故的碎片扩散分布建模研究

针对未来愈发频繁的商业亚轨道发射活动, 为降低亚轨道突发解体事故给民航客机带来的运行风险, 提高空管监视系统对危险情况的应急响应能力, 利用协方差传播算法对亚轨道解体事故碎片落点进行快速预测。该算法围绕线性化的标称轨迹, 将碎片落点预测的随机过程建模为高斯-马尔可夫过程。同时, 通过概率密度函数构造高斯-马尔可夫过程在一定置信度下的概率椭球, 量化碎片落点在标称轨迹附近的位置。在此基础上, 参照航天器标准解体模型, 对影响碎片传播轨迹的弹道系数进行推导计算。仿真结果表明, 该方法可有效提高碎片危险区的预测准确度。

Research on modeling of debris diffusion distribution for suborbital disintegration accident

In response to the increasingly frequent commercial suborbital launch activities in the future, a covariance propagation algorithm is used to rapidly predict the debris drop points of suborbital disintegration accidents to reduce the operational risk of suborbital sudden disintegration accidents to civil airliners and to improve the emergency response capability of the air traffic control surveillance system to hazardous situations. The algorithm models the stochastic process of debris drop points prediction as a Gauss-Markov process around a linearized nominal trajectory. At the same time, the probability ellipsoid of the Gauss-Markov process at a certain confidence level is constructed by the probability density function to quantify the positions of the debris drop points in the vicinity of the nominal trajectory. On this basis, the ballistic coefficients affecting the debris propagation trajectory are derived and calculated concerning the standard disintegration model of spacecraft. Simulation results show that the method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the debris hazard area.