基于专家信任网络的不完全信息武器选择决策

现代战争的发展必须统筹考虑多种类型装备发展与规划.武器装备建设方案的顶层设计大多都属于多属性群决策问题.如果采用传统的犹豫模糊方法,在专家权重未知和决策信息缺失的情况下,单纯依靠悲观或者乐观原则扩充元素,则忽略了专家的综合意见,对专家的评估的完整性造成了破坏,另外,专家权重依靠人为给定,可能存在一定主观偏差.基于以上原因,本文提出了一种不完全信息条件下基于专家信任网络的多属性群决策方法.与传统的犹豫模糊方法相比,提出的专家信任网络的概念,规范了专家权重的计算过程,并且综合各个专家的评估意见,进一步计算专家评估矩阵中的缺失值.本文以武器方案选择为例,完善了基于专家信任网络的犹豫模糊决策方法,证明了该方法的有效性,并分析了特定情况下的专家信任网络对最终决策结果的影响.

Weapon selection decision-making based on expert trust network under incomplete information

The development of modern warfare must consider the development and planning of various types of equipment as a whole.Most of the top-level designs of weapon construction programs belong to the multi-attribute group decision-making problem.If the traditional hesitant fuzzy method is used,in the case of unknown expert weights and lack of decision information,the elements are simply relied on to be pessimistic or optimistic,which causes damage to the integrity of the expert's comprehensive opinion.In addition,the weight of the expert is given artificially with subjective bias.Based on the above reasons,this paper proposes a multi-attribute group decision-making method based on expert trust network under incomplete information.Compared with the traditional ways,the proposed expert trust network standardizes the calculation of experts'weights,and integrates all comments to further calculate the missing values.In this paper,the weapon selection is taken as an example to improve the hesitant fuzzy decision-making method based on expert trust network,prove the effectiveness of the method,and analyze the influence of expert trust network on the final decision result under specific circumstances.