农户借贷的经济影响：基于IVQR模型的实证研究

使用2003年对中国3000个农户的抽样调查数据,采用工具变量分位数回归法(IVQR),在考虑异质性影响和内生性问题的基础上,实证估计了农户借贷的经济影响.研究结果表明,借贷从整体上显著促进了农户经营收入的增加,但对不同收入层次的农户的产出影响具有明显的异质性.借款对最贫困和最富有的农户的收入作用不明显,但是显著促进了中低收入农户产出的增加,其产出弹性约为0.08.由于目前我国农村金融资源的分配明显偏向富有的农户,这为中低收入农户面临信贷约束提供了证据.使用2SLS与普通分位数回归方法(QR)得到的估计都存在较大的偏差.

The Economic Impact of Farm Credit: An Empirical Investigation based on IVQR Model

This paper empirically estimates the economic impact of farm credit by IVQR method,which takes both heterogeneous effect and endogenous problem into account,using a survey data of 3,000 households from rural China in 2003.Our results show that credit contributes to farmers' operation income significantly on the whole,but its impact exists heterogeneous on the distribution of income.The credit impact is not significant for the poorest and richest farmers,but benefits the middle and low income farmers,while the output elasticity is about 0.08.Since the rural credit allocation leans to rich farmers in China,this provides evidence for credit constraints faced by the middle and low income farmers.The estimators got by 2SLS and QR both exist apparent biases.