| 基于灰色理论的海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭开忍,肖熙. 基于灰色理论的海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2007, 41(2): 186-188,193 |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭开忍 肖熙 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学,船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海,200030;上海交通大学,船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海,200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 以灰色理论的基本模型为基础,探讨了灰色模型的改进方法.分析了海底管道腐蚀因素与腐蚀量之间的规律以及应用灰色理论进行剩余寿命预测的可行性.提出了基于灰色理论的海底管道剩余寿命预测方法.利用灰色理论预测腐蚀海底管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括:最小允许厚度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测.利用该方法,可以在测量数据很少的情况下预测海底管道的剩余寿命.
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| 关 键 词： | 海底管道 腐蚀 剩余寿命 灰色理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-2467（2007）02-0186-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-22 |
The Forecast of Remaining Life of Corrosive Submarine Pipelines Based on Grey Theory |
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| TAN Kai-ren,XIAO Xi. The Forecast of Remaining Life of Corrosive Submarine Pipelines Based on Grey Theory[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2007, 41(2): 186-188,193 |
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| Authors: | TAN Kai-ren XIAO Xi |
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| Abstract: | Based on the basic greymodel of greytheory,the improvement of grey model was studied.The law between corrosion factors and corrosion quantity was analyzed.The feasibility of using grey theory to forecast the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines was discussed.A method to forecast the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines based on grey theory was proposed.The step of this method includes calculating of minimum depth,forecasting of corrosion rate and forecasting of remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines.Through this method,the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines can be forecasted when data of cession are few. |
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| Keywords: | submarine pipelines corrosion remaining life gvey theory |
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