基于动态能力需求的鲁棒性武器系统组合决策

针对动态能力需求下武器系统组合决策问题,建立了鲁棒性武器系统组合决策模型。首先，基于能力需求动态演化的不确定性,采取决策树的形式建立能力需求多阶段演化模型;然后,基于能力需求的演化模型,定义了考虑鲁棒性的“系统组合能力-能力需求”的能力风险及相关函数,将该能力风险作为决策的准则;为了解决系统组合爆炸的问题,采用差分进化算法获取鲁棒性武器系统组合决策问题的最优解;最后,通过一个实例验证所构建模型的有效性和合理性。

Robust weapon system portfolio decision based ondynamic capability requirements

To solve the weapon system portfolio problem under dynamic “capability requirement (CR)”, robust weapon system portfolio decision model is established. First, a multiple phase model in the form of decision tree for CR is build, based on uncertainty of CR. Then, based on the CR evolving model, the capability risk of “weapon system portfolio capability-CR” and its corresponding functions are defined by taking robustness into consideration,and this capability risk is considered as the decision criterion. To address the problem of system portfolio space explosion, the differential evolution algorithm is employed to obtain the optimal solution to the robust weapon system portfolio decision problem. Finally,a case is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model.