基于系统动力学的物流园区与产业园区服务功能联动

运用系统动力学理论,通过因果反馈分析图确定了模型的界限,设计了系统流图,并结合变量之间量化公式的构造,构建了"ILSD"模型,在模型的仿真模拟过程中用GDP、第三产业产值以及进口交易额和出口交易额四个状态变量的模拟值与真实值的误差值检验了模型的有效性.研究结果表明:产业园区的功能转型升级影响物流园区的功能转型升级,二者在功能上有较强的联动关系.物流园区在未来功能建设中将强化增值服务功能和配套服务功能,而弱化基本服务功能,至2017年左右,我国物流园区的增值服务额将超过基本服务额,成为主要服务功能,至2020年左右,我国物流园区的增值服务额的增速分别约是配套服务额增速的2倍和基本服务额增速的3倍左右.

Service functions linkage between logistics park and industrial park based on system dynamics

This paper determined the boundaries of model, designed the system flow chart through on analyzing the causal feedback figure based on using system dynamics theory as the main method, it also established "ILSD" model by building the quantitative formula between variables in model. On the basis of all the content, this paper started to do analogue simulation, and it checked the validity of the model by using the error between the simulation value and the real value of GDP, the tertiary industry output value, import volumes and export volumes. The results showed that the transforming and upgrading of functions in industry park had an impact on the transforming and upgrading in logistics park's functions, they linked closely in functions. It came to the conclusion that logistics park would strengthen the value-added service and the supporting service function, while weaken the basic service functions in the near future. About the year 2017, the value-added service volumes of logistics park in China will be more than basic service volumes, become the main service function, about the year 2020, the growth rate of logistics park's value-added service volumes is about twice as much as the supporting service function volumes, and is about three times as the basic service functions volumes.