配额初始分配对跨期碳市场效率的影响研究

碳配额初始分配是碳市场建设与运行的关键环节之一.考察配额初始分配对跨期碳市场效率影响,深刻理解初始分配与储存及借贷间的作用机理,有助于充分发挥二者协同作用,提高跨期碳市场效率.本研究构建了考虑配额分配的两期碳市场效率模型,考察了初始分配对无储存和借贷、单独储存及储存借贷混合三种机制下的跨期碳市场效率影响.理论分析和数值模拟结果表明:无储存和借贷机制下的跨期碳市场有效性严格依赖于初始分配,当初始分配有效,跨期碳市场有效,否则无效.当首期初始配额充足时,单独储存机制下的跨期碳市场有效,跨期均衡价格满足Hotelling规则.当首期初始配额不足时,单独储存机制下的跨期碳市场无效,且第一期价格大于第二期贴现价格.储存借贷混合机制下的跨期碳市场配置有效,跨期均衡价格满足Hotelling规则,且其有效性与初始分配无关.

Exploring the impacts of initial permits allocation on the efficiency of intertemporal carbon market

CO₂ permits initial allocation is a key for the building and operation of carbon market. Exploring the impacts of initial permits allocation on the efficiency of intertemporal carbon market can achieve a deep insight on the interactions between initial allocation and banking and borrowing (BB) regime, which is conducive to improve the efficiency of intertemporal carbon market. By a two-period carbon market efficiency model involving permits initial allocation this study examines how permits allocation has impact on the efficiency of intertemporal carbon market without BB regime, with single banking regime and with BB regime, respectively. The efficiency without BB regime strictly depends on the initial allocation, and the market keeps inefficiency unless the efficient initial allocation for each period is obtained. If the total initial permits in the first period are sufficient in the market with single banking regime, the market will be efficient and equilibrium price will follow Hotelling rule. If the total initial permits in the first period are insufficient it will be inefficient and the discounted price in the second period is below the price in the first one. The efficiency with BB regime is independent on the initial allocation, and the market makes equilibrium price follow Hotelling rule so as to enable efficiency attainable. The feasibility of the model is validated by the numerical analysis.