洞庭湖区农业洪涝灾害脆弱性变化研究

根据1989年、l999年两个不同时期的气象资料和经济统计数据，运用数学模型，对不同时间尺度下洞庭湖区的农业洪涝灾害脆弱性进行定量评估，并作出GIs地图，通过对比分析得出该时期内洞庭湖区农业洪涝灾害脆弱性略有上升，脆弱度较高地区包括沅江市、南县、益阳县、安乡县、汉寿县、湘阴县、益阳市和岳阳市，主要分布在南洞庭湖区和四水尾闾，地势低平、河网密集是这些地区高脆弱度形成的重要原因；脆弱度较低地区包括常德市、津市市、岳阳县和汩罗市，大都处在湖区的边缘，洪水压力较小．分析了洪涝灾害脆弱性动态变化的自然环境因素和社会经济因素，并针对如何降低农业洪涝灾害脆弱性提出建议，为有关部门制定政策提供参考。

Analysis on changes of the vulnerability of flood-water logging disaster in Dong-ting lake area

Flood-water logging disaster is the most serious natural disaster in Dong-ting lake region. Disastrous conditions result from not only the intensity of hazards but also the vulnerability of disaster system, and studying the vulnerability in Dong-ting lake area has important meaning on defending and resisting disaster. According to two different years meteorological data and economic static data and exercising mathematical model, this paper assessed the vulnerability of flood water logging disaster system in different spatial-temporal scale, and make GIS map. Through analysis on spatial-temporal changes of the vulnerability of flood-water logging disaster in Dong-ting lake area, the characters of the vulnerability is discovered. The natural and socioeconomic causes for dynamic changes of the vulnerability are also analyzed, and suggestions on how to decreasing the vulnerability are also made. The findings may provide a scientific basis for policy constitution.