1944—2012年胶州湾岸线时空动态特征

基于地形图与遥感影像,提取胶州湾1944—2012年间7个时相的岸线数据;基于剖面,计算岸线变化的端点速率、平均端点速率和加权线性回归速率,进而揭示胶州湾自1944年以来岸线变化的整体趋势及时空差异特征。结果表明:1)端点速率与加权线性回归速率揭示的胶州湾1944—2012年岸线变化的时空特征高度相似,后者因为有置信区间与相关系数的检验而更加可靠;2)1944—2012年,胶州湾岸线处于整体向海推进的趋势,具体表现为:白沙河以东岸线小幅度、平直化向海推移;白沙河、大沽河与洋河河口附近岸线以盐田与养殖发展形式向海扩张;20世纪70年代黄岛成为陆连岛,岸线大幅度外移,随后其附近岸段因大力发展港口与临港工业,岸线又以围填海形式向海推进,成为胶州湾岸线变化最为强烈的区域;3)胶州湾岸线开发具有阶段性特征:新中国成立初以盐田建设与扩张为主;20世纪80—90年代养殖业的规模及扩张速率超过盐业;而在21世纪,港口与临港工业建设成为岸线变化的主要方式;岸线变化的阶段性特征说明,经济社会发展是海岸带变化的主要驱动因素。

Spatial-temporal characteristics of coastline in Jiaozhou Bay during the period of 1944-2012

In order to depict the overall trend and the spatio-temporal characteristics of coastline changes of Jiaozhou Bay, the coastlines of Jiaozhou Bay in 1944, 1954, 1986, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2012, respectively, are extracted from topographic maps and remote sensing imageries, and the end point rate, the average rate, the weighted linear regression rate are then calculated based on transects. The results are as follows: 1) The end point rate and the weighted linear regression rate can equally detect the spatiotemporal characteristics of coastline changes in Jiaozhou Bay during 1944-2012, nevertheless, the latter, with regard to the confidence interval and the correlation coefficient, is more reliable; 2) During the period of 1944-2012, the coastline of Jiaozhou Bay shows a prevailing trend of advancing seaward. Segments in the east of Baisha River are straightened and have an advancing trend but with a small magnitude; Segments near the Baisha River, Dagu River and Yang River advance in the form of the salt pan and the aquaculture pond expansion; Afterwards the coastline shifts to the seaward edge of Huangdao after it becomes a land-tied island, segments near Huangdao advances seaward in the form of the reclamation due to the vigorous development of the harbor and the harbor industry, and consequently becomes the hotspots of the coastline expansion in Jiaozhou Bay during nearly the past 30 years; 3) Coastline changes of Jiaozhou Bay see remarkable periodical characteristics, and it is shown that the eco-social development is the main driven factor of the coastal zone change: At the beginning of the New China, the construction and the expansion of salt fields are the predominant mode of coastline change, and during the period of 1980s to 1990s, both the extent and the expansion rate of aquaculture exceed the salt industry, and then, in the 21st century, the coastline development driven by the construction of harbor and harbor industry becomes the primary mode. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the coastal utilization history of Jiaozhou Bay and its impacts on eco- environmental system, which could be used in the scientific planning and the integrated management of the coastal zone.