超高压输电线路对我国构建电力市场的影响仿真分析

为了分析超高压输电线路对我国实施西电东送工程、构建全国性电力市场的影响.本文基于地理位置和电网运输成本约束条件,提出一个基于多主体的发电商动态演化博弈仿真模型.在仿真模型中,假定在一个二维平面中均匀分布多个相互分割的垄断市场,在矿产资源地分布着对应的发电商,发电商可以在不同的市场中分别进行产量和价格决策,以使其总体利润最大化.通过仿真发现,每个发电商都存在一个明显的垄断区域,随着输电成本的降低,各个发电商的垄断区域边界开始交叉;并且交叉区域随着输电成本逐渐降低而进一步扩大;当输电成本为零时,则发电商的不存在垄断区域.仿真结果可以解释为什么当前我国农村电价远高于城市电价,而许多发电商仍不愿意向农村供电.并得到以下结论:增大发电商市场规模,会促进发电商在垄断边界处的竞争,在一定程度上缓解电力紧张的局面,但不能从根本上解决发电商在电力市场中的垄断市场力.电力市场中电网运输成本是发电商实施垄断市场力的重要因素.超高压输电线路对我国构建全国和区域性电力市场具有重要影响.

Simulation Analyst on Influence of EHV Transmission Line on the Construction of Power Markets in China

To analyze on the influence of EHV transmission line on West-to-east power transmission and theconstruction of power markets in China,according to the geographical location and the constraints of the power network transportation cost,we propose a simulation model of dynamic evolution game based on multi-agent,in which, it is supposed that various inter-divided monopolistic markets are evenly distributed in a two-dimensional plane.In correspondence with the markets,generation companies are distributed beside...