| 洪水风险分析的簇生过程模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓永录,徐宗学.洪水风险分析的簇生过程模型[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),1993,32(1):35-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓永录 徐宗学 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中山大学数学系 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 对较小的洪水作风险分析时，由流量过程线截取得到的点过程现实呈现成丛性。为了适应这一特点，试图利用族生点过程模型进行洪水风险分析，在本中选用了Neyman-Scott过程模型，并把它用于长江宜晶水站1963－1984年的（阈值Qb＝45000m^3/s)较小洪水风险分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水 风险分析 簇生过程 |
Cluster Process Model For Flood Risk Analysis |
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| Deng Yonglu Xu Zhongxue.Cluster Process Model For Flood Risk Analysis[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,1993,32(1):35-40. |
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| Authors: | Deng Yonglu Xu Zhongxue |
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| Institution: | Deng Yonglu Xu Zhongxue |
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| Abstract: | In practice we also have to consider the case of small floods whichexceed a low critical value of flood Qb.In that case there are many more floodpeaks exceeding Qb,and the peak exceedence counts may then present somedegree of clustering which would necessitate a model other than those in 1],2].There is a variety of cluster models in the theory of stochastic point processes,in this paper we discuss only Neyman-Scott process model and use it to analysethe small flood risk at Yichang station on the Yangtze river from 1963 to 1984. |
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| Keywords: | flood risk cluster process Neyman-Scott process |
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