对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于新疆1984—2009年的数据

对外贸易对经济增长具有推动作用。本文结合新疆的数据，在平稳性检验的基础上，通过建立VAR，进行格兰杰因果分析，长期协整分析，建立误差修正模型，得出以下结论：新疆的对外贸易（包括进口和出口），是经济增长的重要原因，从长期来看，进口和出口均对经济增长具有明显的推动作用；短期来看，出口对经济的正向作用在滞后一期即可显现，而进口在短期具有负向作用，滞后四期才表现出对经济的正向拉动作用，明显表现出一定的时滞性。

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMY GROWTH BASED ON THE XIN-JIANGS DATA OF 1984 -2009

The foreign trade can push the economy growth.The paper used the data of Xinjiang,based on the stationary test,established VAR model,formed the Granger test,long-term cointegration analysis and the error-correction model,then draw the following conclusions:the foreign trade(including import and export) is the important reason for growth;from the long-term,the import and export obviously pushed the economy growth;from the short-term,the export’s positive role to the economy appears in the second term,the import has the negative role in a short-term and its positive role appears in the fifth term and shows time lag.