网络论坛人类行为动力学实证分析

从帖子和用户两个角度对网络论坛的人类行为动力学特征进行实证统计和分析.对帖子属性的统计分析发现，帖子的回复次数、吸引的不同用户数均服从幂律分布，而帖子的浏览次数分布没有明显的规律性；帖子的浏览次数和回复次数之间存在明显的正相关性，且二者的比值大于等于10.对用户发帖、回帖行为的统计分析发现，用户发帖数、回帖数、回复的不同主帖数均服从幂律分布，说明网络论坛用户行为具有很强的异质性，大多数用户很少发帖或回帖，关注范围也比较小，只有少数活跃用户经常发帖或回帖，关注面非常广；还发现单个用户单日回帖数以及单个用户针对单个主帖的回复数也均服从幂律分布，存在少数用户在个别日子里发表大量回帖和少数用户针对少量主帖发表大量回帖的现象.这些结论对于在线用户行为建模具有重要的指导意义，也为网络舆情监控和网络水军发现提供了新的思路.

Empirical Analysis on Human Behavior Dynamics in Online Forum

This paper reported an empirical analysis on user behavior dynamics in online forum. The analysis results on the posts show that both the distribution of the reply number of posts and the distribution of different user number of posts follow power-law distributions with heavy tails, while the distribution of the browse number of posts has no laws. We observed positive correlation between browse number of posts and reply number of posts and the ratio of them is bigger than 10. The statistic results of the users' actions show that the post number, the reply number and the number of root posts which a user has posted replies all follow power-law distributions, which means that the user behaviors in online forums are heterogeneous, and most users post or reply rarely while few users post or reply frequently, and that most users have a small range of concerns while few users have a large range of concerns. We also observed that both the distribution of one-user one-day reply number and the distribution of one-user one-post reply number follow power-law distributions, which means that some people submit a large number of replies on a few of days or submit a large number of replies on a few of posts. The findings of this paper may not only provide guides to online user behavior modeling but may also be applied to online public opinion monitoring and online water-army finding.