贵州降水混沌特性的空间分布及影响因素

贵州地区旱涝灾害频发,为深入研究贵州地区降水特征,运用0-1测试方法对贵州省33个雨量站不同时间尺度下降水序列值进行了混沌识别及降水混沌特性的空间分布特征研究,并研究高程与纬度对贵州降水混沌特性的影响。结果表明:贵州地区降水在旬、月、双月与季尺度下均具有明显的混沌性,且随时间尺度的增大而降低;降水混沌特性的空间变化特征总体上呈东北高西南底的特点,反映出贵州北部地区与西南部地区的降水特征具有明显差异,且气候条件是决定降水混沌特性变化的主要因素;高程与降水混沌特性负相关,在双月、季尺度下的相关系数分别为0. 68、0. 74;纬度与降水混沌特性呈正相关,在双月、季尺度下相关系数分别为0. 43、0. 49。该结果可为研究降水系统的时空变化规律提供参考。

Spatial distribution and influencing factors analysis of precipitation chaos in Guizhou province

Due to the frequent occurrence of droughts and floods in Guizhou, in order to deeply study the characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou, 0-1 test method was used to identify the chaos of precipitation at different time scales with 33 rainfall stations in Guizhou Province. The spatial distribution of precipitation chaos and the influence of elevation and latitude on the chaos of precipitation were studied. The results showed that the precipitation in Guizhou region were obviously chaotic on the tenth, monthly, bimonthly, and seasonal scales, and the chaos of precipitation decrease with the increase of time scale, The spatial variation characteristic of the precipitation chaos was that the northeast higher than southwestern, it indicated that the precipitation characteristic of northern Guizhou was significantly different from southwestern regions, and the climatic conditions are the main factors determining the change of chaos of precipitation, the chaos of precipitation had negative correlation with the elevation on bimonthly and seasonal scales , correlation coefficients were 0.68,0.74 and the latitude had a positive correlation with the chaos of precipitation on bimonthly and seasonal scales , correlation coefficients were 0.43,0.49. This result can provide a reference for studying the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation system.