广西近海海上溢油应急预报系统开发与应用

为解决目前海上溢油漂移扩散计算复杂,不适用于应急处理业务化应用的弊端,通过数学模式,结合Windows可操作界面,构建广西近海海上溢油应急预报系统,并以钦州湾为例对系统进行应用。结果表明,涨潮、落潮时刻发生溢油时,油膜向茅尾海和钦州湾外湾方向漂移距离分别约为17.5 km和17.9 km。涨潮时刻发生溢油时,油膜扩散面积较落潮时小,扫海面积则先小后大。风对溢油漂移扩散结果有显著的影响,不同风向下的油膜漂移方向、影响区域有明显的区别。该系统具有方便、准确以及操作界面友好的特点,可为广西近海海上溢油事故防范、预警预测、应急处理、生态环境损害评估等提供科学依据。

Development and Application of Guangxi Offshore Oil Spill Emergency Prediction System

At present, the calculation of drift and diffusion of offshore oil spills is complicated, and it is not suitable for the application of emergency treatment. In order to solve this problem, based on the mathematical model and Windows operational interface, an offshore oil spill emergency forecasting system in Guangxi is constructed and applied to Qinzhou Bay as an example. The results show that when oil spills occur at the time of flood tide and ebb tide, the drift distances of oil film toward Maowei Sea and outer bay of Qinzhou Bay are about 17.5 km and 17.9 km, respectively. The area of oil spill film diffusion in flood tide is smaller than that in ebb tide. The sweeping area in flood tide is smaller first and then larger than diffusion area in ebb tide. Wind has a significant influence on the results of oil spill drift and diffusion, and there are obvious differences in the direction and area of oil film drift under different wind directions. The system has the characteristics of convenience, accuracy and good operation interface. It can provide scientific basis for the prevention of offshore oil spill accidents, early warning and prediction, emergency treatment and assessment of damage to the ecological environment in Guangxi.