| 基于时间序列对电力系统短期负荷的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆玉玲,谢钱姣,朱家明,李德政.基于时间序列对电力系统短期负荷的预测[J].西昌学院学报(自然科学版),2017,31(1):24-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆玉玲 谢钱姣 朱家明 李德政 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(1131011); 国家级大学生创新训练计划(201510378470 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对电力系统短期负荷的预测,建立了多元回归和时间序列预测模型,分析了最高温度、最低温度、平均温度、相对湿度、降雨量分别对日最高负荷、日最低负荷、日平均负荷的影响程度,以及预测出短期负荷,应用MATLAB、SPSS进行求解,研究得出:最高温度对日最高负荷、日最低负荷、日平均负荷的影响程度最大,且预测值与实际值的相对误差在允许误差范围内,模型可靠性较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 多元回归 时间序列 MATLAB，SPSS |
Short Term Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Time Series |
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| LU Yu-ling,XIE Qian-jiao,ZHU Jia-ming,LI De-zheng.Short Term Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Time Series[J].Journal of Xichang College,2017,31(1):24-27. |
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| Authors: | LU Yu-ling XIE Qian-jiao ZHU Jia-ming LI De-zheng |
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| Institution: | School of Statistics andApplied Mathematics,Anhui Finance and Economics University |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: Aiming at the short-term load forecast of power system, we established the multiple regression and time
series forecasting model, and analyzed the effects of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average
temperature, humidity and rainfall on the daily maximum load, daily minimum load and daily average load .The
results show that the maximum temperature has the greatest influence on the daily maximum load, the daily
minimum load and the daily average load, and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value is
within the allowable error range , thus the model reliability is higher |
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| Keywords: | power load multiple regression time series MATLAB SPSS |
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