基于辩论的群体研讨建模与决策方法

研讨是支持群体共同求解复杂决策问题的有效工具, 其本质上是一种多人间的逻辑思辨与推理的过程. 本文借鉴人工智能领域中的辩论理论, 提出了一种基于辩论的群体研讨模型与决策方法. 首先对比分析了一般研讨流程与辩论过程, 揭示了群体研讨决策和辩论过程在机制和目的上的相似性; 然后引入Dung的抽象辩论框架, 建立了基于辩论的群体研讨系统框架, 并探讨了论据状态的推理机制和论据强度的概念, 并给出了几种典型的决策规则. 最后结合一个软启动产品设计方案优选案例对本文研究进行了验证, 结果表明, 采用基于辩论的群体研讨和决策方法有助于从认知角度来分析决策者的行为动机, 可用于解释决策者偏好形成或直接用于决策, 从而提高决策的科学性与有效性.

Argumentation-based group discussion modeling and decision approach

Discussion is an effective tool to support groups to solve complex decision problems, which is essentially a multiplayer logical thinking and reasoning process. Based on argumentation theory from AI, an argumentation-based group discussion and decision method is proposed. Firstly, the processes of general discussion and argumentation are compared reveal their similarity on the mechanism and purpose. Afterwards, the argumentation-based group decision system is built according to the Dung's abstract argumentation frame, and the reasoning mechanisms for arguments' status, the concept of arguments' strength and some typical decision-making rules are studied. The method is also illustrated by an application case for choosing soft-starter product design alternative. The results show that the argumentation-based group discussion and decision approach can provide a mechanism to analyze behavior motivations of decision makers, and explain the preference generation or make decisions, which can enhance the scientificalness and effectiveness for making decision.