中国煤炭的供给能力:基于供给方程的分析

中国煤炭供给能力一直是学术界讨论热点,但鲜有研究揭示出价格与供给间的基本规律,而这在煤炭运营全面市场化的背景下尤为重要.根据煤种、产地和硫分的差异,归纳出19个区域的51种供给曲线,并在不同煤种价格差异主要由产品类别决定这一假设基础上,借助计量经济学和校准技术,得到了19个区域原煤的供给回归方程和51个不同区域煤种的供给曲线方程.以2011年为基准年份的分析表明:中国煤炭市场均衡价格和数量分别为809元和34.01亿吨,在现有产能约束下,当各地煤炭价格上涨50元时,全国煤炭供给增量为1.19亿吨,其中无烟煤、烟煤、次烟煤和褐煤各为0.16、0.21、0.69和0.13亿吨,但各地的供给弹性和持续供给能力表现各异,此时全国低硫煤的供给增量为0.68亿吨.研究结果对当前的煤炭市场化改革、供给战略设计和清洁能源供给都有着重要的政策启示意义.

Estimation of China's coal supply ability: A typological and regional analysis

China's coal supply ability has been discussed a lot in recent years, but few revealed the basic law of price and quantity which is very important under the background of coal marketing. Based on the difference of coal typology, production area and sulfur content, this article identified 51 coal supply curve distributed in 19 regional districts, and with the help of econometrics and calibration technology, it built 19 raw coal's supply regression equations and 51 different coal typologies' supply curve equations based on the hypothesis that the coal price is mainly decided by its typology. The analysis shows that the equilibrium price and quantity in china's coal market are 809 yuan and 3.40 billion tons in 2011, under the constraints of current productivity, the increment of coal supply will be 0.119 billion tons as the price increases 50 yuan, among which, the anthracite is 160 million tons, the bituminous is 210 million tons, the sub-bitumunous is 690 million tons and the lignite is 130 million tons, but the supply elasticity and sustainable supply ability are different in different districts. Furthermore, the increment of low-sulfur coal is 680 million tons under this situation. This research shed lights on the coal market reform, supply strategy design and clean energy provision in China.