中欧光伏贸易争端对双方经济损益的影响分析

本文选取了中欧之间光伏产品贸易争端为研究案例,利用投入产出模型,从全球价值链的角度来研究中国和欧盟两个经济体在发生贸易争端之后贸易增加值所受的影响.结果显示,贸易争端使得中国一般贸易出口中的国内增加值下降4.88%,加工贸易出口拉动的国内增加值下降1.84%.与此同时,由于生产链条的全球化,中国出口品生产减少引致进口投入下降,进而使得从欧盟进口的相关产品减少,欧盟经济体对中国的出口增加值将下降3.93%.本文还分三种情形讨论了欧盟发起反倾销调查的救济效果,结果发现,即使反倾销不引起贸易转移,欧盟的贸易增加值也将下降1.3%,形成"双输"的局面.

Gain and loss: The dispute of photovoltaic trade betweenEU and China

This paper aims at studying the impact of antidumping on bilateral economy from a new perspective of domestic value added generated by exports through case study. We choose a representative case:photovoltaic products trade dispute between European Union and China. The results show that China suffered 4.88% and 1.84% loss on domestic value-added generated by non-processing and processing trade, separately. Meanwhile, under the background of globalization of production chains, European Union suffered 3.93% loss on domestic value-added. This paper also provides three scenarios to discuss the protective effects of antidumping. However, it turns out to be that European Union will suffer 1.3% loss of value-added even if there is quite low trade diversion. Lose-lose consequences turn up.