基于结构分解的北京能源强度影响因素研究

基于投入产出分析的结构分解技术,开展北京市能源强度的驱动因素研究,将其分解成:能源投入系数、完全需要系数、最终需求结构系数、最终需求、最终能源消耗系数五个因素.利用北京市1997-2012年实物价值型能源投入产出可比价序列表进行实证分析,研究表明:1)总体来说,北京市能源强度一直呈下降趋势;2)能源投入系数和最终需求的变化是能源强度下降的主要驱动因素;3)完全需要系数和最终需求结构在不同阶段对能源强度的降低起到了不同的促进或抑制作用;4)最终能源消费系数的影响作用较为微弱.

Analysis on factors of Beijing's energy intensity with structural decomposition

This paper employs input-output structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) to explore the driving factors of Beijing's energy intensity, including energy input coefficient, technology coefficient (Leontief inverse coefficient), final demands structure by product, final demands by category, and final energy consumption coefficient. Based on the constant price energy-input-output tables from 1997 to 2012, the analysis results show that 1) in general, Beijing's energy intensity declined gradually; 2) the major driving factors were energy input coefficient and final demands by category; 3) the impacts of energy input coefficient and technology coefficient on energy-intensity decrease varied positively or negatively with time; 4) the impact of final energy consumption coefficient was somewhat weak.