金融冲击、货币政策规则的选择与中国经济波动

综合运用贝叶斯估计、二阶矩比较、脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真等方法进行研究后发现:在引入了金融摩擦和金融冲击的情况下,1)利率规则造成的福利损失明显大于数量规则.2)就应对负向金融冲击的效果而言,数量规则的效果优于利率规则的效果.3)金融冲击是驱动我国经济周期波动的最重要力量,金融冲击在利率规则和数量规则下对我国产出波动的解释度分别为40.54%和38.95%.4)货币政策规则的选择对我国宏观经济的总体运行具有很大影响,且对通货膨胀的影响要大于对产出的影响.5)在我国利率尚未完全市场化且存在金融冲击的情况下,我国央行应更多地采用货币政策数量规则调控经济.

Financial shocks,the choice of monetary policy rules and economic fluctuations in China

This paper comprehensively uses Bayesian estimation, comparison of the second-order moment, impulse response, variance decomposition, historical decomposition and counterfactual simulation to arrive at the conclusions as follows:in the case of introduction of financial frictions and financial shocks, 1) the loss of welfare under the interest rate (price) rule is greater than the quantity (money supply) rule. 2) The quantity rule is better than the interest rate rule in cope with the effect of the negative financial shocks (financial crisis). 3) Financial shocks play the primary role in explaining the volatility of output, investment, debt and employment under both the interest rate rule and the quantity rule, and they explain 40.54% and 38.95% of the variances of output respectively in China. 4) The choice of monetary policy rule has a great influence on the economy of China, and the effect of it on inflation is greater than the effect on the output. 5) In the case of the interest rate being not fully market-oriented and the existence of financial shocks, the People's Bank of China should adopt more quantity rules to regulate the economy.