尾矿库风险演化复杂网络模型及关键隐患分析

针对尾矿库隐患及事故风险演化问题,面向尾矿库生命周期阶段,对事故影响因素包括技术,人为,环境与管理等因素和尾矿库隐患进行了辨识,进而构建了尾矿库事故风险演化的复杂网络模型.通过分析尾矿库复杂网络模型的特征参数和指数,得到了有关尾矿库隐患及风险演化的整体网络和事故子网的一些特性和规律;通过进行网络干扰和测试全网效率指数,找出了尾矿库风险演化复杂网络的关键节点(隐患),对预防和控制尾矿库隐患及事故风险演化具有指导意义.研究结果表明,尾矿库风险演化网络具有小世界网络特征,体现为局部空间或特定时间上的因素变化或干扰即可引发尾矿库系统的灾变,中间中心度较高的节点(隐患)是尾矿库风险演化过程中的关键节点(隐患),优先处置关键节点(隐患)有助于预防尾矿库事故的发生.

A complex network model for analyzing risks and majorhazards of tailing impoundments

For the problem of mine tailing impoundment hazards and risk evolution, accident factors including environment, technology, human, laws and regulations and hazards and risks of tailing impoundments were identified in each stage of the life cycle, and then, a complex network of relevance between accidents and associated hazards was established. By analyzing the characteristic parameters and indices of mine tailing complex network model, some of the characteristics and laws of the whole network and subnet were obtained. The key hazards of risk evolution network for mine tailing impoundments were obtained through the network attack and global efficiency index test, which had the guiding significance to the prevention and control of tailing impoundment hazard and risk evolution. The conclusion shows that the risk evolution network of tailing impoundments has the characteristics of small-world network. It is probably that a small hazard can cause a big disaster in the local space or a particular time. Nodes with high betweenness centrality are the key nodes in mine tailing risk revolution. First removal of the key nodes in the complex network can help prevent the occurrence of tailing impoundment accidents effectively.