国外最终需求对我国碳排放的诱发效应:基于中间品贸易渠道的考察

考虑到中间品贸易带来的复杂国际分工特征,本文构建全球区域间投入产出模型考察了1996-2009年各国最终需求通过直接途径和间接途径对我国碳排放的诱发量和诱发系数,并对整体诱发量变化区分生产端和需求端的五类影响因素变动进行了分时段分国别的结构分解分析.研究发现:国外最终需求通过中间品贸易渠道而间接诱发的中国碳排放越来越大,且欧美和东亚国家最终需求有不同特征的诱发效应.期间,可反映生产环节和消费环节中间品贸易隐含碳的经济技术效应和国外最终需求结构效应是整个诱发量变动的最大推手.分国别看欧盟和美国的贡献最大,分阶段看入世后各效应变化更为显著.

Foreign final demands' induced effects on China's carbon emissions: From the view of intermediate goods trade

As the global supply chain embodied the intermediate goods trade becomes remarkable and complicated, this article set up a global inter-regional input output model to analyze the China's carbon emission effect induced by the foreign final demand through direct final goods import or indirect intermediate goods import from 1996 to 2009, and examines at the country level for the changes of the whole induced carbon in different periods by the structure decomposition analysis model with five influence factors deduced by both supply side and demand side. The results show that the China's carbon emissions indirectly induced by the foreign final demand except China's final goods content, that is the China's intermediate goods embodied in foreign final demand, are larger and larger. And the induced relationships feature in the Europe and the United States are different from that in East Asian. During the study period, the economic technology effect and the foreign final demand structure effect, which respectively reflecting the carbon emissions embodied in intermediate goods trade of supply side and demand side, are the key driving force to the rise of China's carbon emissions induced by foreign demand. At the country level, the Europe and the United States made biggest contributions in the whole period. And the contribution changes of five influence factors at the country level are more significant after China joined the WTO.