SD模型的系统极小反馈基模集入树组合删除生成法——以德邦规模养种系统发展为例

反馈基模是社会经济复杂系统分析的有效工具,在穷举可能经嵌运算生成极小基模的入树组合原则下,给出了三个入树组合删除法则,利用法则可删除大量不能生成极小基模的入树组合,从而实现简单有效计算一个确定复杂系统极小基模集的目的.根据二阶反馈环中流位变量、流率变量的关联特征,给出二阶极小基模生成步骤;根据入树组合删除法则,给出三到n阶极小基模生成步骤.由此,得到规范化的系统极小反馈基模集生成的步骤.以德邦牧业规模养种生态能源反馈系统为例,建立了含八棵入树的流率基本入树模型,利用此方法计算出系统八个极小基模构成的系统极小反馈基模集.此八个极小基模可有效刻画养殖废弃物污染制约系统发展、厌氧发酵产出物二次污染制约系统发展、场户合作低碳循环农业模式促进系统发展三个不同阶段的系统主导结构,并基于极小基模分析生成促进系统发展的三条管理对策.建立了德邦牧业规模养种生态能源反馈系统模型仿真方程,仿真分析三条管理对策的实施效应,实现了定性至定量综合集成分析,此实证分析效果揭示极小基模集入树组合删除生成法为系统进行反馈环分析提供了一种新的方法.

System minimal feedback archetype set in-tree combination deletion generation method of SD model-Take the development of Debang scale planting and cultivating system as an example

Feedback fundamental model is an effective tool for the social economic complex system analysis, through the in-tree combination principle of exhaustive possible generating minimal fundamental model by embedded operation, three in-tree combination deletion rules are given, using these rules we can delete a large number of in-tree combinations which cannot generate the minimal fundamental model, so we can realize the objective of calculating simply and effectively one determined complex system minimal fundamental model set. According to the associated features of the level variable and rate variable in the second step feedback loop, we give the second step minimal fundamental model generation steps; according to the in-tree combination deletion rule, we give the third to nth step minimal fundamental model generation steps. Thus we get the normalized system minimal feedback fundamental model set generation steps. Take the Debang husbandry scale planting and cultivating ecological energy feedback system for example, we build the rate variable fundamental in-tree model including eight in-tree, using this method we calculate the system minimal feedback fundamental model set constituted by eight minimal fundamental models. These eight minimal fundamental models can effectively characterize the the system dominant structure of three different phrases-Culture waste pollution restriction system development, anaerobic fermentation output secondary pollution restriction system development, field and household cooperation low carbon cycle agricultural model promoting system development, and analyze three management countermeasures of promoting system development generated by the minimal fundamental model. We build the Debang culture scale planting and cultivating ecological energy feedback system model simulation equation, simulate and analyze the implementation effect of the three management countermeasures, realize the meta synthesize from qualitative to quantitative, this empirical analysis effect reveals: the minimal archetype set in-tree combination deletion generation method provides a new method for system to carry out feedback loop analysis.