行为决策对突发事件的干预机制及其预案启动策略研究

通过分析决策者的行为特征,提出了行为决策的集合描述方法.然后,结合突发事件的结构化描述,从结构化组成要素层次设计了行为决策对突发事件的干预机制,并分析了干预效果在激变型突发事件和渐变型突发事件中的不同表现形式.进一步,在同时考虑到突发事件的情景危害和情景演变的情况下,采用应急预案两两对比的方式,运用累积前景理论从情景属性的评估视角提出了应急预案的评估方法和启动策略.最后,以2003年SARS为例验证了理论和方法研究的有效性.

Intervention mechanism of behavioral decision-making on emergency and its starting strategy of contingency plan

In this paper, we first present structural description method of behavioral decision-making after analyzing decision-maker's behavioral characteristics. Then, by considering the structural description method of emergency, we design intervention mechanism of behavioral decision-making on emergency from the perspective of the structural elements, and we analyze manifestation of the intervention effect in both intensely changed emergency and gradually changed emergency. Next, by considering hazard and evolution of scenario of emergency, we take the method of comparing every two contingency plans and apply the cumulative prospect theory, to present assessment method and starting strategy of contingency plan from the perspective of assessing the attributes of scenario. Finally, a case of SARS in 2003 is taken to verify the validity of the theoretical and methodological study.