产业结构演变对工业和服务业就业的影响——基于58个国家的实证检验

基于面板平滑转移模型,本文采用58个国家面板数据,通过全局最优的模拟退火法(SA)和非线性最小二乘法回归,实证分析产业结构变化对工业和服务业就业的影响.研究发现:城镇化是实现产业结构工业就业效应的有效机制,城镇化通过第二产业发展和产业集聚促使劳动力由农业转向工业;企业规模是产业结构变化推动服务业就业的有效内在机制,企业生产扩张和竞争力提高使服务业就业得到优化配置.第二产业对工业就业,第三产业对服务业就业均有正向促进作用,但产业间的总体就业溢出效应为负向;产业结构调整引起的就业弹性较小,就业结构并不能跟随产业结构演变而发生质变.此外,发达国家的产业间就业溢出为负,表明在产业结构的成熟阶段,第二产业与第三产业发展存在一定的替代效应;而发展中国家的产业间就业溢出为正,表明还处于产业结构的调整阶段,拥有剩余的人力资源,可以实现工业和服务业就业"齐头并进".

The effect of industrial structure on industrial and service employment: Base on the empirical test of 58 countries

Based on the panel smooth transfer model, this paper uses the panel data of 58 countries in order to make the empirical analysis of industrial structure's impact on industry and services employment though the global optimal method of simulated annealing (SA) and nonlinear least squares regression. The research find that:urbanization is the effective mechanism to realize the employment effect of industrial structure change and it promotes labor come from agriculture to industry by second industry development and industrial agglomeration. Moreover, enterprise scale is the intrinsic effective mechanism to realize the employment effect of service sectors, because enterprise production expansion and competitiveness increasing make employment optimize. There is a positive promoting in the second industry to industry employment and the third industry to service employment, but inter-industry spillover effects of employment is negative. The employment elasticity caused by industrial structure adjustment is quite small and the employment structure cannot match the economic growth. In addition, the developed countries have stay in the mature stage of industrial structure because the employment spillovers are negative and there is a substituent effect between secondary industry and tertiary industry. But the developing countries still in the adjustment stage of industrial structure because the employment spillovers are positive and there still has surplus human resources to achieve industrial and service sector employment "going together".