中国城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金的精算建模

基本养老保险制度是中国养老保险体系最重要的支柱。本文以城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度为例,建立基本养老保险基金收支的精算模型,与已有社会保障基金的测算模型相比,本文模型假设缴费状态和退休时间均为随机变量,根据基本精算原理刻画制度规定的所有现金流,以2005-2008年北京市城镇职工基本养老保险数据为例,测算结果表明,本文模型的预测结果与实际吻合.本文模型全面、客观地刻画了中国基本养老保险制度,可作为基本养老保险基金未来收支测算的规范精算模型.

Actuarial model for urban public pension fund in China

Public pension system is the most important pillar of China pension system. Taking China urban public pension as an example, this paper aims to build an actuarial model for the public pension fund. Compared with the existing models, our innovation is that we allow the insured interrupts his contribution and takes early retirement. Based on the innovation and the policy system, we then build the new model following basic actuarial principles. Employing the data of urban public pension in Beijing from 2005 to 2008, we test the model and find that the model works very well. Our model describes the basic pension system in China comprehensively and objectively, which can be used as a standard actuarial model for the public pension fund.