北斗卫星导航系统组网发射方案风险分析

卫星群的组网发射是北斗卫星导航系统建设中一至关重要的环节,它受到技术可靠性、发射场容量以及测控能力等方方面面的制约,因而存在着很大的不确定性因素.为确保导航系统建设进度、保障系统运行效益并减少不确定因素,在实际组网发射前需进行综合的风险分析.围绕一箭多星发射方式的选择,通过建立可靠性和风险分析框架来处理其所带来的风险,不同的发射方式具有不同的技术可靠性、资源消耗和所得收益,对一箭多星发射方式的比较,为权衡选择结果提供了定量的分析.进一步考虑发射方式的技术可靠性和其他约束的影响,对不同发射方案的表现,特别是对本文新提出的组网可靠性指标进行仿真分析,最后从多角度利用ER方法综合进行卫星组网发射方案整体性定量评估.

Risk analysis on emission scheme of satellite networking for Compass

Satellite network emission is a key chain in Compass construction, which is influenced by constraints including the technical reliability, the volume of launch sites and the capability of monitoring and control etc., thus uncertainty exists. To ensure the construction schedule, the function of navigation system and to minimize the uncertainty, comprehensive risk analysis is necessarily required beforehand. Reliability and risk analysis framework was established to mainly deal with the uncertainty caused by the selection of multi-payload launch modes. Different launch modes varies in technical reliability, resource consumption and benefits produced. The comparison on reliability between multi-payload launch modes provided a numeric approach to balance the outcomes. Furthermore, a simulation method was applied to evaluate performance of various emission schemes, specifically the newly proposed feature-networking reliability which is affected by technical reliability of launch modes and other constraints. Last but not least, a rounded qualitative assessment from all aspects on satellite networking emission scheme was conducted using ER method.