基于SD方法的水资源有偿使用制度生态经济效应仿真研究——以浙江省为例

文章引入SD方法,以水资源有偿使用制度为例,构建了水资源制度的生态经济效应仿真模型.模型分为五大子系统:人口子系统、经济子系统、水资源自然子系统、水生态环境子系统、水资源制度子系统,包括60多个变量和30多个系统方程.以浙江省2009年为启动年份,模拟了2009到2013的结果,进行了模型验证,然后设置了现状方案及水资源有偿使用三种方案,进行了水资源有偿使用制度仿真模拟研究;结果发现生活用水量、工业用水量、污水排放量、工业万元GDP用水量、工业单方水产出等生态经济效应指标都随着方案的不同有所变化,农村和农业征收水资源费将会推进农村生活用水减少和农业节水,第三产业和工业增加水资源费将会提高水资源经济效应,同时在相同产值情况下会减少污水排放量.

Simulation research on the ecological and economic effects for the paid use system of water resources based on system dynamics: Take Zhejiang province a case

Water policy is the key to solve the problem of water resources, the simulation research can provide the basis for a more scientific policy. The development and utilization of water resources is a system engineering. This paper builds a simulation model on the ecological and economic effect of water resources system, using system dynamics method, for the paid use system of water resources. Model is divided into five subsystems:population subsystem, economic subsystem, natural water resource subsystems, water ecological environment subsystem, water system, including more than 60 variables and more than 30 system equations. This paper finds the model is reasonable, through the simulations result of 2009 to 2013 for the validation of the model, setting 2009 for start year. In this paper, four kinds of plan for model are set, including present situation plan and three kinds plan of water resources paid uses system, in order to study water resources paid use system. The results find that ecological economic effect index varies along with the plans, such as life water consumption, industrial water consumption, sewage, etc. For the rural and agricultural, water resources fee will improve rural living water reduction and agricultural water saving, for tertiary industry and industry. To increase water resources fee will improve the economic effect of water, at the same time, under the condition of same production will reduce wastewater emissions.